At the end of the year sales "bowtail" hard to present discounts caused car market overdraft?

The current small-displacement automobile purchase tax preferential policy is about to “expire”.

More than half of the fourth quarter, the small-displacement car purchase tax preferential policies are also drawing to a close. Up to now, relevant government departments have not yet announced the follow-up preferential policies, that is, the tax rate on the purchase tax of small-displacement vehicles will be restored from the current 7.5% to 10% in 2018. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association"), China's auto market sold a total of 17,150,500 passenger cars in the first three quarters of this year. Although the absolute value of sales increased by 2.38% compared to the same period of last year, sales growth slowed down by 12.37% year-on-year. %. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the reduction of purchase tax preferential margins, the overdraft of the small-displacement automobile market, and the structural transformation of the automobile industry, the preferential sales of small-displacement purchase tax policies has weakened the sales stimuli of China's auto market this year.

In response, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Chair"), said in an interview with a reporter from the China Business News: "With the approaching end of the tax incentives for small-displacement vehicles, China The auto market sales volume will increase in the fourth quarter of this year, but the growth rate will decrease compared with the increase in the sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2016. In the case of the automobile industry accelerating the transition to new energy vehicles, the future small-displacement models Encouraging policies will also be tilted toward new energy vehicles."

Slower growth

The reporter found that many market analysts agree with Cui Dongshu's market forecast. Jia Xinguang, a well-known analyst in the automotive industry, said in an interview with reporters: “There will be a panic buying in the fourth quarter, but the heat will be weaker than last year. The sales growth in the fourth quarter of last year will be above 15%, and this year it will be around 5%~6%.”

Overall, the overall growth rate of China's auto market in the first three quarters of this year has slowed down, which is the main basis for industry insiders to believe that the increase in impulse in the fourth quarter may not be as good as last year's corresponding period. From the perspective of the sales growth rate of the passenger vehicle market in China in October this year, it is also true that according to the latest sales statistics released by the CLUCC, the average weekly retail sales and weekly average sales of the passenger car market in China in October The volume was 64,652 vehicles and 66,612 vehicles, which represented a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5% and 1.5% respectively. Compared with the growth rates of 16% and 13% in October 2016, both had a significant drop.

Cui Dongshu believes that the purchase tax preference in 2017 will be reduced by half compared with the 5% reduction in purchase tax incentives implemented in 2016. The reduction in the purchase price of cars will be the main reason for the slowdown in sales growth in the fourth quarter of this year. In this regard, well-known commentator Yan Jinghui of the automotive industry also expressed similar views to reporters. "For car consumers, the discount on vehicle prices is the most direct attraction. With the reduction of the discount rate, the purchasing interest of small-displacement car buyers will naturally be lower than last year."

In spite of this, the purchase tax preferential policy still has a more obvious stimulus. During the reporter’s visit to the market, Ms. Sun, who was watching the car in a Chang’an auto 4S store in Langfang City, told reporters: “My friend suggested that I pay close attention to buying at the end of the year, because once the purchase tax preferential policy is cancelled, it will cost about 2,500 yuan more. cost."

In order to use the consumer's consumption mentality to further expand the market, many car companies take the initiative to take measures to extend the purchase tax preferential time, temporarily make up for the 2.5% reduction in tax incentives. It is understood that a number of car companies, including Mercedes-Benz, SAIC Passenger Cars, GAC Toyota, FAW-Volkswagen, Dongfeng Citroen, have introduced corresponding subsidy policies. Due to different sales of major manufacturers, their sub-subsidy models, as well as ordering and pick-up time, are not all the same. For example, in order to increase the sales volume of the MG 6 that has just been listed, the SAIC Passenger Vehicle has hereby launched a vehicle on the premise of December 31, and all models enjoy a preferential policy of halving the purchase tax.

Policy shift

In addition to the impending reduction in sales promotion, the small-displacement vehicle purchase tax incentives themselves may also change in the future.

In an interview with reporters, Yan Jinghui said: "With the introduction of the traditional fuel vehicle withdrawal market schedule, China's automobile industry will also rapidly transition to new energy vehicles. Although the related preferential policies will still appear, it will at least not be simple. The traditional fuel vehicle purchase tax concessions."

In 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have exceeded 500,000 vehicles, and the cumulative number of new energy vehicles has been promoted to over 1 million, accounting for 50% of the world's total. The proportion of auto tax, the proportion of employees, and the proportion of auto sales exceeded 10%.

Although there are no specific proposals for halting the sale of fuel vehicles, as France, the Netherlands, Germany, and other European countries have done, the State Department of Industry and Commerce Deputy Minister Xin Guobin also disclosed at the 2017 China Automotive Industry Development (TEDA) International Forum that it will work with relevant agencies to formulate a The timetable for the delisting of traditional energy vehicles.

Yan Jinghui believes that the willingness to formulate a withdrawal schedule for traditional energy vehicles fully demonstrates the determination of the Chinese government to promote the reform of the automobile industry.

At the same time as the automobile industry has undergone changes, China’s government’s relevant regulatory policies will also change. Although policies similar to small-displacement automobile purchase tax preferences will still appear, they will at least be combined with new energy vehicle support policies, and the overall automotive industry. Macro-control measures will be tilted toward new energy vehicles.

In this regard, Jia Xinguang holds the same view. He said: “Since the Chinese government has clearly stated that it will stop the sales of traditional internal-combustion engine vehicles, it should no longer be the case for preferential tax policies for small-displacement vehicles. With the implementation of the 'double-integration' policy, the relevant incentives for the automotive industry Policies will also continue to tilt toward new energy vehicles."

Multiple effects

Although the future development of preferential policies for the purchase of small-displacement purchases is still difficult to predict, its impact on the automotive industry in China is already very obvious. From the current point of view, the most direct impact it brings is the increase in the overall sales volume of automobiles and the market share of small-displacement (1.6L and below) models.

Up to now, China has implemented two preferential policies for the purchase of small-displacement vehicles. Whether in the first implementation of 2009 or the implementation of the second implementation of 2015, the small-displacement vehicle purchase tax preferential policies have played a significant role in the promotion of China's auto sales. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in 2008, the cumulative sales volume of passenger cars in China for the year was 6.755 million, which was a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. After releasing the automobile purchase tax halving policy in 2009, the cumulative sales volume of domestic passenger vehicles for the year reached 10.3133 million units, an increase of 52.93%, and the sales volume of models with only 1.6L and below displacement surpassed that of 2008. Passenger car sales reached 7,195,500 vehicles.

Compared with 2009, in the first three quarters of 2015, the production and sales of passenger cars in China were 14.6603 million vehicles and 14.5478 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 1.49% and 2.75% respectively from the same period of last year, and the growth rate slowed down significantly. After the formal implementation of the vehicle purchase tax concession in October 2015, sales of passenger vehicles continued to grow at a sequential rate for three consecutive months. In the fourth quarter of 2015, cumulative sales reached 6.444 million units, and annual sales of passenger cars reached 21,144,300 units. Increased by 7.3% year-on-year. In response, Jia Xinguang stated: “In the second half of 2015, China’s passenger vehicle market experienced negative growth. The implementation of preferential tax policies for purchases of small-displacement automobiles avoided sales decline in 2015 and contributed to a significant increase in sales volume in 2016. A new historical high."

In addition to the sales promotion effect, the preferential policies for the purchase of small-displacement automobiles have, to a certain extent, been the call of the Chinese government for energy-saving and emission reduction. Driven by the mandatory fuel consumption standards and the incentives for low-emission automobile purchase taxation, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and other luxury brands have all launched 1.6L and below displacement models. "Small-displacement automobile purchase tax preferential policies have played a greater role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in China's auto industry." Cui Dongshu stated clearly in an interview with reporters.

Of course, in addition to its active promotion role, the purchase tax incentives for small-displacement vehicles have also caused a certain overdraft in the automotive market, and will have a certain impact on the subsequent development of China's auto market. In 2011, after the cancellation of the preferential tax policy for small-displacement automobile purchases, the sales growth of the passenger vehicle market in China slowed down drastically. The total sales volume of passenger vehicles in the year was 14.4724 million units. The growth rate fell to 5.2%, and the growth rate was lower than that in 2010. 28%. Among them, the cumulative sales of small-displacement passenger vehicles totaled 9,839,300 vehicles, which fell to 4%.

Although the current automobile market has been different from the past, the market overdraft that may be caused by the preferential tax policy for the purchase of small-displacement automobiles can still not be ignored.

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