Overheated Commercial Real Estate The Ministry of Commerce thoroughly investigated the speculation in the country

For the first time, the Ministry of Commerce launched a special survey on the construction of commercial facilities throughout the country. The research group will be dispatched to all parts of the country in early July. In recent days, notifications have been issued to the relevant provinces and municipalities to request a detailed understanding of the situation.

Commercial real estate has developed rapidly in recent years and there are signs of scale out of control in many cities. The first action of the Ministry of Commerce was to prevent speculation in commercial real estate, and the second was to promote the issuance of the "Regulations on the Planning of Urban Commercial Networks" as soon as possible. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce also hopes to find out more about the increment of commercial facilities so as to promptly guide the market in a timely manner. At the same time, the problems and difficulties in the development of commercial real estate will be discovered as soon as possible, which will provide a basis for the central government to adjust its industrial policies.

42-year-old Wenzhou real estate person Yao Jie was fortunate.

Since May 7th, when the national ministries and commissions jointly issued a real estate deal, many of the homeowners around her who have real estate speculation are on a daily basis. She has already had more than 30 properties in Suzhou, Kunshan and other places as early as two months ago. Listing sold.

However, the funds that are withdrawn cannot always be seen. “There are still great opportunities for shops and offices.” The words of fellow villagers made her awake. She quickly bought several shops and office buildings around Suzhou Jinji Lake and other cities. The decisiveness of the shots was not as bad as before.

However, a Xinhua News Agency news on June 9 caused her to gradually repent her "impulse."

Xinhua News Agency reported that “to prevent the government from controlling residential real estate, form a new wave of commercial real estate speculation, and correctly guide the healthy development of commercial facilities construction, the Department of the Ministry of Commerce’s Market System Construction Division will cooperate with the China City Business Network Construction Management Association, China Business The Real Estate Alliance conducted research on the development and operation of commercial facilities in parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang....... The research group will be dispatched to various places in early July and has recently issued notifications to the relevant provinces and cities. It is the first time for the Ministry of Commerce to conduct a special survey on the construction of commercial facilities across the country."

This news quickly stirred up in the market. According to industry insiders, this is a sign that the central government is about to introduce control measures for commercial real estate; Others speculated that commercial real estate will once again encounter policy risks after housing; and some people have already discounted commercial real estate prices by two or three percent. .

"If the situation is not good, I still have to sell the property in my hand as soon as possible." Yao sister said worriedly.

Commercial real estate investment boom

The new “State of the Eight” issued by the seven ministries and commissions has used unprecedented intensity and determination to stabilize housing prices. The policy effect is gradually being demonstrated. What is the intention of the Ministry of Commerce to propose to investigate commercial real estate at this time?

Wang Yongping, secretary-general of China Commercial Real Estate Alliance and vice chairman of the China Urban Commercial Network Construction Management Association, explained that this action was to prevent the central government from controlling residential real estate and form a new wave of commercial real estate speculation; Commercial network planning regulations will be introduced as soon as possible. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce also hopes to find out more about the increment of commercial facilities so as to promptly guide the market in a timely manner. At the same time, the problems and difficulties in the development of commercial real estate will be discovered as soon as possible, which will provide a basis for the central government to adjust its industrial policies.

“In the past two years, there have been problems in the development of domestic commercial real estate, and there are signs of scale out of control in many cities. This may be the motivation for the Ministry of Commerce to make this decision.” Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Real Estate Research Center India? According to an interview with the Morning Post reporter.

According to the survey, commercial real estate as a substitute for residential investment has developed rapidly in recent years. Some time ago, some overseas funds such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, etc., and some domestic developers frequently used huge amounts of money to purchase high-end office buildings in Shanghai, showing strong optimism for this market; many real estate consulting agencies such as Jones Lang LaSalle also have It is predicted that Shanghai's commercial real estate, especially Grade A office buildings, will increase by 20% to 30% in the future. The relevant agencies also estimated that the rental area of ​​Shanghai commercial real estate this year will reach 2.2 million square meters, and the sales area will reach 1.15 million square meters.

Not only in big cities, but also in second and third-tier cities, commercial real estate investment is also hot.

In Wuxi, the "Pearl of Taihu Lake," Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, has just broken ground this year. Prior to this, 11 foreign business tycoons have opened 15 stores in Wuxi, including only 4 large supermarkets within a 3 km radius of Wal-Mart.

In the county-level city of Kunshan, after the Lotus settled in early November last year, Auchan, Carrefour and the British supermarket boss Tesco Group all reported that they wanted to open a "semicolon" in the local area. Wal-Mart under the land and Bai Runfa, which has already settled in the city, have attracted six hypermarkets in one fell swoop, even in second-tier cities. It is said that Lotus is still preparing to drop two sons in the area, of which the second home has been signed and the third home is still negotiating.

In the southwest business district of Chengdu, only large retail companies have gathered more than 40. According to an authoritative survey agency's report, the cumulative supply of commercial housing in urban Chengdu has reached 1.2744 million square meters last year, with an area of ​​813,800 square meters sold, and 460,000 square meters has not yet been sold. This year, the newly-started commercial real estate in Chengdu exceeds 2 million square meters, and many projects will face investment pressure.

In contrast, the municipality of Chongqing seems to be even less optimistic. Last year, the city's commercial housing vacant area of ​​2.46 million square meters, vacant for more than a year of 1.6 million square meters. And there are more than 40 large-scale commercial facilities that have been built and under construction in the region, so that Chongqing Business Committee officials assert that the planned number of stores has clearly exceeded the market demand.

The CBD (Central Business District) may be a microcosm of commercial real estate investment. Looking at the whole country, more than 40 cities are interested in building CBD; in the Yangtze River Delta alone, Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou put the CBD on the agenda, and Nanjing, Wuxi, Ningbo and other cities are waiting in the wings – and In foreign countries, usually a maximum of 2 to 3 cities in a country are eligible to build a CBD.

According to information released by the China Commercial Real Estate Alliance, in 2004, investment in commercial real estate nationwide reached 170 billion yuan, but the vacant area reached 26.1 million square meters, and the vacant area increased by 20.3% in the first quarter of this year. Unusually, with the vacancy rate As for the increase, the unit price of commercial real estate did not fall, but rose by 5.2%.

“In a sense, this kind of investment in commercial real estate is similar to the madness of economics in terms of “fating”, that is, investors ignore the apparent high risk of the market and replace rational investment behavior with irrational speculation. The difference in heat is that there is still a huge market demand behind the housing to support, and once the commercial real estate investment fails, the result can only be a loss.” Analysis of industry sources said.

Overheating risk emerging

“Although the large number of stores and supermarkets opening up have brought great convenience to the people's life, it is undeniable that in many areas, commercial outlets overlap in location and competition in homogeneity is severe. In some areas, they have already fallen into the trap of oversaturation. In the end, it may lead to a drop in profits, an increase in risk, and an increase in shuffling.” Zhu Lianqing, director of the Commercial Research Center of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, broke the danger of hidden over-investment in commercial real estate.

India also similarly pointed out that “when commercial real estate investment goes out of control, it will bring terribly dire consequences—on the one hand, it will be extremely low-hanging commercial facilities, and on the other hand it will be vicious competition and will kill each other. In the unlikely event that the investment is interrupted, it A large number of investors dragged to death, and created a "market with no market", and finally it was naturally 'shopping shops become dead.'"

In some cities, it is not uncommon for this kind of "dead phenomenon" caused by over-exploitation.

In the commercial city of Nanjing, the results of more than 20 hypermarkets are: Some hypermarkets are in trouble because of their operations, and even begin to default on suppliers’ money; there are two hypermarkets located in the north of Nanjing City and in the city, with an average daily sales of only 20 Million yuan and 150,000 yuan --- For a hypermarket that invests hundreds of millions of dollars, such sales figures are no different from chronic suicide.

At the same time, the local business reshuffle has quietly intensified. According to the reporter’s understanding, since the supermarket has entered Nanjing as an independent new business, in the past few years, there have been close to 10 new supermarkets, including New Shuai Lian, Hua Tuo, New National Road, Lidron, Xinyijia, etc., in which the new one opened. After ten months, he was replaced by three managers because of poor management. Finally, it was still difficult to escape from the robbery. When Li Delong first opened his business, he fired artillery to Suguo and threatened to “do it” with the result. The "siege" to a number of stores owned by Suguo, the business has since been depressed.

The local shopping malls are also suffering. Starting from last year’s “11th” holiday, 7 of Nanjing's 8 major department stores located in Xinjiekou did not increase compared to the same period last year. This year, this sales decline has continued to spread. It can be seen that operating conditions are not accidental.

In Shanghai, Shanghai's fast-growing hypermarkets have suddenly changed: The overall retail sales of the May Day Golden Week supermarket dropped for the first time, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The Hongqiao shopping park, once known as Asia's largest shopping center, was suspended due to funding problems the year before. In Beijing, the “Beijing MALL” invested by Beijing Land Group is still at a standstill. According to local media reports, the chairman of the group, Xu Ming, has only 100 million yuan in cash, but the total investment required for this project is as high as 1.8 billion yuan.

What is more dangerous is still the fragile capital chain that sustains investment in commercial real estate. According to a survey conducted by the China Business Confederation last year, the total investment in shopping centers nationwide has exceeded 170 billion yuan, of which more than 80% and about 130 billion are from banks. Commercial real estate has been driven by the whole body.

Not only this, Wang Yongping believes that there are still some factors that also affect the development of commercial real estate in our country. For example, the New Deal for residential development some time ago will prompt some developers originally engaged in residential development to passively enter commercial real estate development, and a large amount of funds will flow into commercial real estate, making the development of commercial real estate that is problematic and unoptimistic; The "city commercial network planning regulations" will be promulgated this year. Due to the lagging nature of policies, large amounts of money involved in the development of commercial real estate will likely impact the ordinance; in addition, many investors believe that commercial real estate investment is "a three-generation family". Secure investment, and lack of understanding of the high risks involved, it is possible that the tragedy of “three generations to raise one shop” may not be known...

These are the background for the Ministry of Commerce to resort to this action.

From Jiangsu investigation to the national thorough investigation

In fact, as early as the first half of last year, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to Jiangsu on the “Investigation of the Construction of Large-scale Commercial Outlets”. At that time, the Ministry of Commerce had asked Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, and other cities to report the status of commercial networks after the investigation within the prescribed time limit. All department stores, supermarkets, large-scale supermarkets, warehouse-type shopping malls, specialty stores, shopping centers, and commodity trading markets (including wholesale markets) with a building area of ​​5,000 square meters and above must all be “passed”. The specific content of the survey is the construction area of ​​large-scale commercial networks, total construction investment, sources of funds, business conditions, business conditions, whether they enjoy preferential policies, and whether they are in line with commercial network planning. However, that investigation was only a regional self-examination, and it is not the same as the nation-wide special survey that will be launched by the Ministry of Commerce next month. It is understood that the contents of the thorough investigation conducted by the Ministry of Commerce include: the total area of ​​local commercial outlets and the commercial area per capita; the name, mass and sales scale of commercial projects over 10,000 square meters already opened in the country (including wholesale markets and logistics centers. ); The construction and operation of local large-scale commercial facilities; The vacancy rate of local commercial properties; The analysis of commercial facilities with high vacancy rate; The capital situation of commercial facilities construction; The impact of macroeconomic policies on the construction and operation of commercial facilities; The development of commercial facilities and norms of advice and recommendations.

For the upcoming “commercial real estate thorough investigation storm”, experts interviewed by the reporter of the Morning Post all expressed a strong expectation and recognition.

Professor Zhao Hangsheng, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Zhejiang University, told the Morning Post that the central government’s thorough investigation of commercial real estate throughout the country is very necessary. And not only to investigate, but also to analyze the reasons - what exactly set off this wave of commercial real estate investment?

India India believes that it is of course necessary to investigate commercial real estate, but after the investigation, it is still necessary to solve the problem. To this end, we must first understand the nature of investment in domestic commercial real estate. “In contrast to residential investment, commercial real estate investment is actually a form of government action. Many local governments have the psychology of 'making a market'. It seems that as long as commercial facilities are built up, the market is formed. This is the fundamental reason that has prompted local governments to carry out major projects. ”

In his view, some well-known markets such as Yiwu Small Commodity Market and Changshu International Garment City have all been objectively formed, either with resource gathering or with convenient transportation. Not all places are suitable for the market. Because every square meter of commercial space requires a certain amount of purchasing power to support, if the local industry scale and spending power do not reach a certain level, investment may be lost.

“Currently, this situation is mainly caused by local government pursuing political achievements and too much interference.” India has pointed out that some local governments do not have to spend money to build commercial facilities. They only need to use various preferential conditions, and investors naturally tend to rush. But this does not solve a fundamental problem: where does the consumer come from? In essence, the construction of the market should be demand-oriented, supported by a strong industry and sufficient purchasing power. If the market conditions are not mature, it will be a "man-made market," and it is doomed to fail.

“Look at our plans. Once the commercial plans of many developed countries can be managed for 100 years or even 200 years, the subsequent governments can't arbitrarily revise them. But here we are 'power is greater than the law' and there are few overall plans and comprehensive considerations. The concept of balance," said India.

Avoid "one size fits all"

One wave has not subsided, and one wave comes again.

“The Ministry of Commerce took the lead in organizing the investigation and should be a continuation of the seven ministries' control of the New Deal. It is a precautionary measure.” Gu Jianfa, deputy researcher in the real estate research of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Morning Post reporter that residential, commercial and office buildings have always been the real estate market. The three major investment destinations. However, after 2003, investors have obviously focused on property speculation in residential housing, and even there has been an anomaly in housing prices that are higher than office prices. Therefore, the new "State of the Eight" launched this year is primarily aimed at residential buildings, and there is no specific intervention in office buildings and shops. Now it finally intervenes. To some extent it is a "supplement" to the New Deal.

He believes that the Ministry of Commerce is likely to issue control measures for commercial real estate based on the survey results after the investigation is completed. For example, the original transaction cost of the shop (with a deduction of 3%) was always higher than that of the dwelling. However, after the New Deal was introduced, the deed tax of the residence increased significantly, and the deed tax of shops may also increase. "After all, the control room for commercial real estate is still very large."

In this regard, Zhao Hangsheng, director of the Institute of Real Estate Research at Zhejiang University, believes that the regulation of commercial real estate should be differentiated from residential housing. Due to the relatively low requirements of residential areas, the central government puts the price issue on top of the regulation; while commercial real estate is very particular about the location, there is basically no price issue, but mainly the issue of lots. Good commercial real estate is always scarce because good places are always scarce. Some ineffective supplies that have no commercial value cannot be regarded as commercial real estate at all, but are buildings that do not even have residential functions. Therefore, the regulation of commercial real estate is best controlled from the source—the land that has no development value should not be put into the market as much as possible. In this way, on the one hand, the supply is reduced, and on the other hand, investment risks are also reduced.

“According to my estimation, the Central Government is unlikely to introduce a policy of stabilizing commercial real estate prices this time because commercial real estate itself is an investment product, which is fundamentally different from a residential product as a consumer product. As an alternative, the central government may introduce some guiding issues for the current issue. Policy.” According to Zhao Hangsheng, some time ago the problem of commercial real estate development was mainly due to the loss of contact with “business”. Commercial real estate should be developed for business purposes, but now it is just the other way round. It is the use of commercial real estate for development. For example, many places ShoppingMall's operating methods are sold after property rights divided, but the usual practice abroad is the transfer of property rights as a whole.

“The results of the investigation by the Ministry of Commerce should not be that the government should step up interventions. The government should only release guiding opinions and provide the role of advance notice to the lower levels. It should not directly interfere with microeconomic behavior, otherwise it will go back to the old road.” In India? According to China’s view, if the issue is rectified as soon as it is discovered, it will be back to the regulatory economy. Government intervention can only be modest. The government should be a guide and a referee. It should not be both a referee and an athlete.

He also pointed out that the regulation of commercial real estate can not be "one size fits all". There may be scarce shops and shops in some places; in others, the opposite is true. These differences should be treated differently. For example, after the implementation of the “Two-ten-One Million Project” in Shanghai, many residential areas are located in the suburbs, and there will certainly be greater demand for hypermarkets in the future. For this kind of demand, we cannot use "regulation" as an excuse to "cut across the board."

"Of course, after the end of the investigation, there is an important task that we need to complete - that is, to provide a suitable way out for hundreds of billions or even hundreds of billions of private capital." Zhao Hangsheng believes that this is the commercial property after the residential regulation. The internal logic of investing quickly heats up.

The principle of economics tells us that capital naturally has a profit-driven nature, and where the high profits and small risks go. This is the will of capital. On the basis of removing risk factors, capital will calculate and compare the expected return level. As long as there is a difference in income, the flow is inescapable. The greater the difference in income, the more resolute the flow of capital, the faster the speed, the greater the flow. Even if there were fences blocking it, it would not hesitate.

Once mainstream capital flows become the dominant factor in market behavior, it tends to self-strengthen and lead a large number of risk aversion-type capitals to convert into risk-biased capitals, and finally form a wave of “investment trend”. The reason why the residences were unprecedentedly hot in the past two years was the reason why commercial real estate was highly sought after in the past few months.

However, the market will also result in "failure" due to blindness. At this time, it needs a "visible hand" to guide it. Whether it is the introduction of the new “State of the Eight” or the “Special Investigation of Commercial Real Estate” all play this role.

“This requires a reasonable guidance of capital. Because capital is always looking for outflow channels, it is a flood of beasts in banks. If it impacts the market, it will have disastrous consequences, and if it can be guided in the right direction. The last (such as valuable commercial real estate), then the market can restore the function of resource allocation, macro-control can only be truly successful.” Zhao Hangsheng finally said.

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